The Physics of Marketing - Brownian Motion

In 1827 Robert Brown was trying to observe the fertilization process of flowers under a microscope when he noticed slight movements in the grains of pollen, which were suspended in water.  “Were the particles alive?”  “No, so how did they move?”  The answer is Brownian Motion.  The pollen on the microscope’s slide was suspended in water.  Thus the movement of the pollen was not due to the pollen being alive, but was actually caused by the constant and random movement of the water molecules which were bumping into the pollen.  These collisions created the illusion of the pollen being alive.  In actuality the movement was a by-product of the movement of the water.

This phenomenon can be observed in the way that air pollution spreads, or how dust particles seem to dance about in a sunbeam gleaming through a window.  Brownian motion can be influenced by things like the type and temperature of the particular gas or liquid in which something is suspended.  For example molecules in warm water are more active than in cold water, and thus would result in more movement.

How does the concept of Brownian Motion pertain to marketing?

For me this is very similar to the concept of signal versus noise, discussed by Don Wheeler in his book Understanding Variation.  The central premise is that a data without context is basically meaningless, and that changes in numerical values are not necessarily representative of real change.  Wheeler asserts that “the first mistake in interpreting data is to interpret noise as if it were a signal.”  The second is to “fail to detect a signal when it is present.”

Much like Brown’s initial reaction to the moving pollen, business leaders can mistakenly attach value to motion.  So the 5% increase in sales that made everyone feel so great, could actually be the act of random motion.  The increase in the response rate on that piece of direct mail - might just be noise.  Conversely, the decrease in hits to your web site might just be the result of random movement.  There is a certain amount of variation inherent to everything.  Thus, making the numbers or beating the numbers can be misleading.

Just as happens in suspensions, every environment is different.  And just as temperature and chemical composition influence the amount of variation, so do things like competition, market saturation, market awareness, and other factors.  Some industries may have little fluction, some may have substantial changes.  As Wheeler states, The Voice of the Customer decides what you want from the system, the Voice of the Process decides what you will get.  “It’s Management’s job to bring the voice of the process into alignment with the voice of the customer.”  That is how real motion, not random motion, takes place.

As a marketer it is important not to attach too much importance to individual data points, (the numbers are up today, the numbers are down today) but rather to view the data as a whole.   Variation, or random movement, is inherent to nature.  One must take the time to separate the signals from the noise, and then to act accordingly.

How would you apply Brownian Motion to Marketing or Business?  Share your thoughts by leaving a comment.

Whatcha Talkin Bout Willis?

By this time you have probably heard about Twitter.  If not, here is a quick summary.  Twitter is a site where you, and the rest of the world get 140 characters to answer one question “what are you doing?”

Now the common first reaction by someone who discovers Twitter is to scrunch up their face, tilt their head to the side and scratch it, sigh, tilt their head back again, shrug their shoulders and say “huh?”  “What is the big deal?”

Well shortly thereafter you begin to discover that on Twitter people are sharing thoughts and opinions on everything under the sun in a very concise and easy to understand format.  Better yet the format is constantly evolving.  Twitter also makes it possible to follow brilliant thinkers like John Moore, Pete Blackshaw, and Guy Kawaski, as you follow “what they do.”

Still, the whole thing can seem a bit overwhelming and disjointed.  That is where the new Twitter Search (formerly Summize.com) comes into play.  Simply type in a term and you can search in real time what people are talking about.  Search Dayton, or Obama, or McCain, Pizza, Reds, Apple, whatever - Twitter search will aggregate the results so that you can begin to make sense of it all.  Better yet, it is equipped with an RSS feed so that you can track the conversation as it evolves.  Track mentions of your name, your employer, your friends, and on and on.

So do you wonder what Willis is talking about?  Well I am not sure if Willis (Todd Bridges) uses Twitter, but you can find a whole bunch of people talking about him and darn near anything else by using Twitter Search.  Give it a try, and share the interesting things you find with your comments.

Twitter Search

Phone it in: Goog-411

Google is great. You can use it to find just about any piece of information ever produced. But, what is one to do when information is needed and a computer is not handy? Simple, just call in your search. Dial 1-800-GOOG-411, and get connected to whatever business, organization, or service you are searching for. Google will literally run a search on the keywords you provide, and then read back the results to you one by one. This is really handy for people who spend a lot of time behind the wheel - think sales people, service reps, business trainers. Want to find the nearest Pizza place, hospital, hotel, or book store? Simply speak the city where you are located followed by the name of the business, service, or product you need and voila. Unlike typical 411 services,there is no charge for the service, and just like a normal Google search, you get multiple results. If your phone is web enabled, Goog 411 can even map directions for you on the spot. This, along with Jott.com are hardwired into my speed dial. I have been using this service for months now, and can’t remember life without it. This service further emphasizes the importance your web site’s ability to perform well in search. On the web, people are not prone to go more than a few pages deep to find something. This opportunity seems limited until you consider the phone. How many listings will someone sit through until they decide to make a choice over the phone? One? Three? Seven? Something to think about as you consider your site’s search performance. Give Goog-411 a try.
1-800-GOOG-411: Find and connect with local businesses for free from your phone.