In 1827 Robert Brown was trying to observe the fertilization process of flowers under a microscope when he noticed slight movements in the grains of pollen, which were suspended in water. “Were the particles alive?” “No, so how did they move?” The answer is Brownian Motion. The pollen on the microscope’s slide was suspended in water. Thus the movement of the pollen was not due to the pollen being alive, but was actually caused by the constant and random movement of the water molecules which were bumping into the pollen. These collisions created the illusion of the pollen being alive. In actuality the movement was a by-product of the movement of the water.
This phenomenon can be observed in the way that air pollution spreads, or how dust particles seem to dance about in a sunbeam gleaming through a window. Brownian motion can be influenced by things like the type and temperature of the particular gas or liquid in which something is suspended. For example molecules in warm water are more active than in cold water, and thus would result in more movement.
How does the concept of Brownian Motion pertain to marketing?
For me this is very similar to the concept of signal versus noise, discussed by Don Wheeler in his book Understanding Variation. The central premise is that a data without context is basically meaningless, and that changes in numerical values are not necessarily representative of real change. Wheeler asserts that “the first mistake in interpreting data is to interpret noise as if it were a signal.” The second is to “fail to detect a signal when it is present.”
Much like Brown’s initial reaction to the moving pollen, business leaders can mistakenly attach value to motion. So the 5% increase in sales that made everyone feel so great, could actually be the act of random motion. The increase in the response rate on that piece of direct mail — might just be noise. Conversely, the decrease in hits to your web site might just be the result of random movement. There is a certain amount of variation inherent to everything. Thus, making the numbers or beating the numbers can be misleading.
Just as happens in suspensions, every environment is different. And just as temperature and chemical composition influence the amount of variation, so do things like competition, market saturation, market awareness, and other factors. Some industries may have little fluction, some may have substantial changes. As Wheeler states, The Voice of the Customer decides what you want from the system, the Voice of the Process decides what you will get. “It’s Management’s job to bring the voice of the process into alignment with the voice of the customer.” That is how real motion, not random motion, takes place.
As a marketer it is important not to attach too much importance to individual data points, (the numbers are up today, the numbers are down today) but rather to view the data as a whole. Variation, or random movement, is inherent to nature. One must take the time to separate the signals from the noise, and then to act accordingly.
How would you apply Brownian Motion to Marketing or Business? Share your thoughts by leaving a comment.
David,
I would look at the numbers on a line chart (with dates corresponding to each number).
Then I’d step back and look at the marketplace which my company is a part of, and see if there are any external events or seasonal buying trends that may have affected the numbers, more so than any business actions my company has made.
I’d also look at the marketing efforts my company’s made during the same timeframe and see if there may be some correlation between what we did and how the numbers turned out.
Long story short: I’d look at the external environment and our internal environment and then make an analysis of the numbers.
Hope that makes sense.
Nick Wright
Nick,
That is precisely right, at least in my mind. Wheeler suggests utilizing process behavior charts that illustrate when a process is out of its normal behavior. This helps to indicate if something is a signal or just noise, and it is an enhanced version of a line chart. This then allows for one to begin to draw conclusions based on the results. That is where the internal and external examination would be appropriate. You are right on my friend. Thanks for the comment.
You’re welcome David.
Really enjoy the site and although I do not always have something to say, I am constantly able to learn through your provoking posts and the intelligent comments of those who contribute. Keep up the great work David!
I was thinking of going a whole different angle with the marketing correllation before I got to your posit that it is a way to change your view of the constant influx of statistical information we face on a daily basis. However, in a strange way, my angle is related to yours; if there is always going to be ‘Brownian Movement”, there is always a way that we as marketers should be influencing that movement.
As you explained, there are external factors — temperature, pressure, medium, etc. — that effect this movement. The driving force behind our professional livelihoods is the ability to create compelling offerings and take them to market and complement them with messaging that creates a more controlled ‘movement’ towards our good or service.
Will there always be some atypical Brownian blips in our data that make us scratch our heads? Sure. Yet, having done our jobs correctly and positioning ourselves in a spot where we can take advantage of our opportunities while still having the ability to be agile in changing markets, this constant and, Brownian Movement will have very little impact on our successes.